2024 Cme rate hike probability - According to the CME FedWatch Tool, bond futures traders peg the odds of the Fed keeping its key federal-funds rate target unchanged as a near certainty, over 98%. The current target range is 5.25 ...

 
Nov 14, 2021 · Summary. Since the beginning of October, the CME FedWatch Tool has indicated an increased probability of a second rate hike by the end of 2022. As recently as October, Eurodollar volume ... . Cme rate hike probability

May 3, 2023 · The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point on May 3, meeting widespread predictions and bringing the federal funds rate to its highest level since the summer of 2007. This ... Jun 13, 2023 · Recently, the probability for a 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 61.2%, up from 59.9% on Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Looking back at past cycles, the real federal funds rate ... Market participants estimate the probability of another interest rate hike at 22.5%. CME FedWatch Tool. After that, three broad outcomes are in play:And as highlighted above, the FedWatch Tool has a table that lists the target rate, the current probability, and the previous day’s probability. The target rate refers to the Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate. And as discussed earlier, the Fed’s target range is currently at 0.25% to 0.50%. A 25 bps rate hike would therefore ...There is about a 30% chance that the Fed does not increase interest rates in March, according to the CME FedWatch Tool—an abrupt shift in expectations.14 Jun 2022 ... The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders see a 94% chance of a 75 basis-point hike to be announced Wednesday.But even if the Fed pauses at its upcoming gathering, the probability for a 0.25% rate increase at the July meeting is over 50%, according to CME Group. Treasury yields spikeMar 8, 2023 · The markets are currently expecting the Federal Reserve to make another quarter-point rate hike during its next meeting two weeks from now, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 69.4% probability ... But even if the Fed pauses at its upcoming gathering, the probability for a 0.25% rate increase at the July meeting is over 50%, according to CME Group. Treasury yields spikeData: CME Group; Chart: Axios Visuals. On Tuesday, the markets gave the Fed only a 33% probability of holding rates steady on June 14. By Wednesday, that probability had spiked to 74%, with the chances of a rate hike plunging to 26%. Why it matters: The Fed made concerted attempts Wednesday to talk up a so-called skip, bolstered by a WSJ ...Canadian Interest Rate Expectations. This tool analyzes Canadian interest rate expectations using the implied 3M CDOR ("Canadian Dollar Offered Rate") movements and probabilities based on BAX prices. This could be used to estimate the probability of upcoming Bank of Canada key target rate movements.Source: CME Fedwatch Tool. Data from the CME Fedwatch tool suggests that the probability of a 100 basis-point raise this month is 41%. This value had surged up to 81% on Wednesday after the labor department released the CPI data before declining. The chart shows that the market anticipates a 75 bps raise by the Feds, with a 59% chance …Current pricing in the fed funds futures market points to about a 60% likelihood of a hike in March, and a 61% probability that the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will add two more by ...The CME FedWatch Tool shows 66% probability of a 25 bps rate hike in the next policy. The 10-year note yielded 3.37% during Monday morning Asian trade, up from Friday's low of 3.25%.For December, as this question explains, there are 14 days of effective Fed funds rate at 3.83% and 17 days of EFFR to be decided at the Dec 14 FOMC meeting. The implied probability should be (futures MID - weighted EFFR)/(size of hike * num of days after hike/total), which, for 50bp, is (95.8788 - 95.6216)/(0.5 * 17/31) and that's 93.8%.Source: CME Fedwatch Tool. Data from the CME Fedwatch tool suggests that the probability of a 100 basis-point raise this month is 41%. This value had surged up to 81% on Wednesday after the labor department released the CPI data before declining. The chart shows that the market anticipates a 75 bps raise by the Feds, with a 59% chance …And while fed futures trading implies an over 50% probability that rates will stay at 5.25%-5.50% at the end of the year, there's still a 31.9% chance that the FOMC will increase again by 25 bps ...The CME FedWatch Tool translates these market prices into probabilities, offering a succinct view of the market's expectations and assigning a probability for how …U.S. interest rate futures saw an increased probability of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in November, according to CME's FedWatch. The Fed did not hike rates in June but is widely ...Get an overview of how to read and use the CME FedWatch Tool to predict rate hike increase probability. Learn more.Jul 5, 2023 · The probability that the Fed delivers another rate hike this month rose to more than 88% on Wednesday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which tracks trading. May 19, 2023 · Looking at the expectations for a pause in interest rates hike, as per the CME FedWatch tool, up till a week ago the probability of a pause at the FOMC's June meeting was more than 99%. Data pulled from the CME FedWatch Tool around 11 a.m. EST showed an 80.6% probability that the central bank would increase the target range of the federal funds rate to 425 and 450 basis points at ...U.S. interest rate futures saw an increased probability of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in November, according to CME's FedWatch. The Fed did not hike rates in June but is widely ...The probability of a 0.25 percentage point increase rose above 70% at one point in morning trading, according to the CME Group, indicating that a momentary bout …The probability of such an increase is 92.4% according to the CME FedWatch Tool, which measures rate hike probabilities.The probability for no rate hike shot up to as high as 65%, according to CME Group data Wednesday morning. Trading was volatile, though, and the latest moves suggested nearly a 50-50 split between ...Nov 12, 2021 · Since the beginning of October, the CME FedWatch Tool has indicated an increased probability of a second rate hike by the end of 2022. Meanwhile, Eurodollar volume significantly moved into Quarterlies and 1-Year Mid-Curve options, traditionally a sign of near-term rate moves. Traders see a 52% probability of another 25-bp rate hike in May and a 47.4% chance that the federal funds rate will stay unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool.The probability of a 0.25 percentage point increase rose above 70% at one point in morning trading, according to the CME Group, indicating that a momentary bout of Fed-induced panic had passed.The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point on May 3, meeting widespread predictions and bringing the federal funds rate to its highest level since the summer of 2007. This ...The implied probability of a fresh rate rise by the Federal Reserve in June is close to 40% now, up significantly from the 10% chance a week ago, the CME Group Fedwatch tool shows.The markets are currently expecting the Federal Reserve to make another quarter-point rate hike during its next meeting two weeks from now, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 69.4% probability ...This chart shows 86% odds that the FOMC will provide a 25 basis point rate hike today. CME FedWatch Tool. Further increases in the target range for the benchmark rate, which has already risen by ...CME's FedWatch Tool showed markets are giving about 40% probability of another rate hike in November, and no hike in September. NEW LOOK.Canadian Interest Rate Expectations. This tool analyzes Canadian interest rate expectations using the implied 3M CDOR ("Canadian Dollar Offered Rate") movements and probabilities based on BAX prices. This could be used to estimate the probability of upcoming Bank of Canada key target rate movements.The Chicago-based company said its net profit rose to $625.2 million, or $1.71 per share, in the quarter ended Dec. 31, from $424 million, or $1.18 per share, a year earlier. Stripping out one ...On March 12, 2022, based on the prior trading day's closing prices, the Atlanta Fed's tracker assigned a probability of 99.11% to a 25 bp rate hike being approved at the FOMC meeting on March 15 ...The probability of a 0.25 percentage point increase rose above 70% at one point in morning trading, according to the CME Group, indicating that a momentary bout of Fed-induced panic had passed.But even if the Fed pauses at its upcoming gathering, the probability for a 0.25% rate increase at the July meeting is over 50%, according to CME Group. Treasury yields spikeThe momentum for Fed rate hikes is growing, with investors expecting multiple increases over the next two years. Interest Rates Products Fed Fund futures are one of the most widely used tools for hedging short-term interest rate risk, and reflect insights regarding the future course of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.12 Nov 2021 ... Since the beginning of October, the CME FedWatch Tool has indicated an increased probability of a second rate hike by the end of 2022.The report increased traders expectation of a rate pause by the Federal Reserve during Wednesday's two-day policy meeting to 91.9%, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, said that the result would keep the Fed's hawkish trigger finger hovering over the rate hike button in the months ahead. …The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point on May 3, meeting widespread predictions and bringing the federal funds rate to its highest level since the summer of 2007. This ...The CME FedWatch Tool forecasts the probability of a rate hike (or rate cut) at the FOMC meeting based on the prices of 30-Day Federal Funds (ZQ) futures released traded on CME. The futures prices reflect market expectations of the effective federal funds rate (EFFR). The chart outlines the FedWatch probability forecasts for each upcoming FOMC meetings.The CME FedWatch tool showed an 80.6% probability of a rate increase of 50 basis points at the Federal Open Market Committee's December 13-14 meeting, up from 58.6% a day ago.Markets have priced in at least a 25-bp rate hike in March, with the probability of a 50-bp hike in increasing to 30.6% from 0% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.This chart shows rate hike probabilities for the June meeting. CME FedWatch Tool. These policymakers have ratcheted up the aforementioned target range …The CME Rate Watch tool is currently forecasting a 98% probability of another quarter point increase that would raise the federal funds rate to a range of 525 to 550 basis points – its highest ...At 11 a.m. eastern time the Dow is up 1.17 percent trading at 21,055, the 2-year Treasury yield - more sensitive to rate hikes - has hit its highest level since October 2008, trading at 1.308 ...Jul 7, 2023 · U.S. interest rate futures saw an increased probability of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in November, according to CME's FedWatch. The Fed did not hike rates in June but is widely ... And while fed futures trading implies an over 50% probability that rates will stay at 5.25%-5.50% at the end of the year, there's still a 31.9% chance that the FOMC will increase again by 25 bps ...Moreover, the CME FedWatch showed a 73.5% probability that the Fed would hike the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in the March FOMC meeting while the probability of a 25 basis-points ...On March 12, 2022, based on the prior trading day's closing prices, the Atlanta Fed's tracker assigned a probability of 99.11% to a 25 bp rate hike being approved at the FOMC meeting on March 15 ...Investors see a 94.7% probability of a 25-bp hike on Wednesday, up from a 48.4% probability of a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Indeed, most economic data reports over the past ...Interest rate futures tied to the Fed policy rate have shifted notably over the last few weeks, the CME Group's FedWatch tool shows, and now reflect about 50/50 odds of a quarter-percentage point ...Explore the depth of our Interest Rates data. Gain insights using data from our short-term interest rate and U.S. Treasury futures and options, OTC and cash markets. Explore multiple perspectives from datasets on conventional trading activity, unique third-party resources or engage in price discovery using our regulated benchmarks.Shares steady on hopes for rate-hike hiatus in June ... 75% chance of no change in Fed rates in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool. ... 70% probability that the fed funds rate would reach 5. ...Nov 12, 2021 · Since the beginning of October, the CME FedWatch Tool has indicated an increased probability of a second rate hike by the end of 2022. Meanwhile, Eurodollar volume significantly moved into Quarterlies and 1-Year Mid-Curve options, traditionally a sign of near-term rate moves. However, traders were still only pricing in a 15% chance the Fed will raise rates next month, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate hikes based on fed futures trading ...Expectations are running high at a 77.5% probability as of February 2, 2018, based on the CME FedWatch Tool, that the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, March 21, 2018 will see a hike in rates.The expectation is that the target zone for the effective Federal Funds rate would move to 1.50% to 1.75% in March, which takes the May 2 meeting out of the running.And while fed futures trading implies an over 50% probability that rates will stay at 5.25%-5.50% at the end of the year, there's still a 31.9% chance that the FOMC will increase again by 25 bps ...Jul 7, 2023 · U.S. interest rate futures saw an increased probability of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in November, according to CME's FedWatch. The Fed did not hike rates in June but is widely ... CME Group's FedWatch tool currently assigns a 60% probability to a 25-basis-point hike to 5.25%-5.5% in June, and there is a non-negligible 25% chance of a similar hike to 5.5%-5.75% in July.Aug 25, 2023 · NEW YORK (Reuters) - Interest rate futures tied to the Federal Reserve's policy rate on Friday priced in a more than even chance of tightening at either the November or December policy meetings... At 11 a.m. eastern time the Dow is up 1.17 percent trading at 21,055, the 2-year Treasury yield - more sensitive to rate hikes - has hit its highest level since October 2008, trading at 1.308 ...The CME Group’s central bank observations tools BoEWatch and FedWatch show that market expectations indicate increasing probability of a Bank of England rate rise this December, while the Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates in September 2022 and December 2022. The markets are increasingly anticipating a UK interest rate rise by the …How the CME FedWatch Tool Works. Assume the FOMC target range is currently set as 0.75 to 1.0 percent (or 75 to 100 basis points). First, we would select the tool’s output for the nearest meeting – which has two potential outcomes. The bar on the left represents the probability that rates are unchanged.May 18, 2023 · The implied probability of a fresh rate rise by the Federal Reserve in June is close to 40% now, up significantly from the 10% chance a week ago, the CME Group Fedwatch tool shows. 2 Feb 2022 ... In the view of investors, the Fed is most likely to have rates at 1.625% by the end of 2023 (Figure 1). Figure 1: Investors are currently ...Summary. Since the beginning of October, the CME FedWatch Tool has indicated an increased probability of a second rate hike by the end of 2022. As recently as October, Eurodollar volume ...Ahead of the release of the ECB's decision earlier today at 0915 ET, markets were pricing in a 56.8% probability of a 25 basis point hike by the central bank next week, according to the CME ...26 May 2023 ... 1️⃣ U.S. markets closed Monday 2️⃣ Debt ceiling negotiations 3️⃣ Fed rate hikes #cmegroup ... CME Group. 27.9K. Subscribe.For example, the tool estimated a much higher probability of a 0.5% hike than a 0.25% hike immediately following Congressional testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on March 7.Before the CPI release, markets had been pricing in about a 20% chance of a rate hike at the June 13-14 FOMC meeting. Following the meeting, that probability fell to just 8.5%. Following the ...The CME’s FedWatch tool is predicting that there is a 99.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a ¼% rate hike on July 26 when the next FOMC meeting concludes. It is also likely ...Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates ... Explore the depth of our Interest Rates data. Gain insights using data from our short-term interest rate and U.S. Treasury futures and options, OTC and cash markets. Explore …Cme rate hike probability

The probability of another rate hike increase before 2024 is now 14.5%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a real-time tracker that measures rate hike probabilities. The tracker indicates a 85.5% .... Cme rate hike probability

cme rate hike probability

Traders are starting to bet that the rates market is underestimating the chances of an interest-rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting, which concludes Nov. 1.. Thursday’s CME ...Jun 1, 2023 · Data: CME Group; Chart: Axios Visuals. On Tuesday, the markets gave the Fed only a 33% probability of holding rates steady on June 14. By Wednesday, that probability had spiked to 74%, with the chances of a rate hike plunging to 26%. Why it matters: The Fed made concerted attempts Wednesday to talk up a so-called skip, bolstered by a WSJ ... Mar 22, 2023 · The CME FedWatch Tool, which monitors futures contracts to calculate the probability of Fed rate hikes, put the odds of one more 25 basis-point increase in the federal funds rate in May at less ... Auto Loans: WalletHub expects the average APR on a 48-month new car loan to rise by around 12 basis points in the months following the Fed’s next 25 basis point rate hike. For historical context, the average APR on a 48-month new car loan rose from 4.00% in November 2015 to 5.50% in February 2019. That’s a 150-basis point increase in a ...The CME FedWatch Tool forecasts the probability of a rate hike (or rate cut) at the FOMC meeting based on the prices of 30-Day Federal Funds (ZQ) futures released traded on CME. The futures prices reflect market expectations of the effective federal funds rate (EFFR). The chart outlines the FedWatch probability forecasts for each upcoming FOMC meetings. Mar 10, 2023 · The probability of a 0.25 percentage point increase rose above 70% at one point in morning trading, according to the CME Group, indicating that a momentary bout of Fed-induced panic had passed. The graph below was created using data downloaded from CME’s FedWatch tool on its website and includes the % probability of the target Fed Fund rate being 450-475 (which is what it currently is), 475-500 (a hike of 25 basis points) and 500-525 (a hike of 50 basis points) after tomorrow’s meeting conclusion. As you can see, none of these ...25 Aug 2020 ... The CME FedWatch Index is extremely useful for monitoring the probability of upcoming FOMC policy moves. Probabilities of rate hikes or cuts ...Federal Reserve policymakers will probably hike the target range for the federal funds rate at their upcoming meeting, according to results recently provided by the CME FedWatch Tool. The members ...The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge just heated up — and that could mean another rate hike By ... markets had the probability of a Fed pause at 54.2%, according to CME FedWatch. A little more ...Jun 13, 2023 · Recently, the probability for a 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 61.2%, up from 59.9% on Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Looking back at past cycles, the real federal funds rate ... Fed Rate Hike Probability Pushes CME Interest Rate Trading to Record. Markets have rushed to price in a Fed rate hike culminating in record volumes across key futures segments. CME Group, one of the industry’s largest derivatives marketplace, recently recorded an all time record high volume of Fed Fund Futures contracts on …Jan 19, 2023 · Between 1980 and today, the public debt to GDP ratio has risen from 33% to 108%, while household debt rose from 49% to 76%. Corporate debt rose from 51% to 80% (Figure 1). As such, the economy’s sensitivity to rate hikes could likely be much greater today than it was in the late 1970s and early 1980s when debt levels were much lower. Since the beginning of October, the CME FedWatch Tool has indicated an increased probability of a second rate hike by the end of 2022. Meanwhile, Eurodollar volume significantly moved into Quarterlies and 1-Year Mid-Curve options, traditionally a sign of near-term rate moves.At last glance, financial markets have now priced in an 83.4% likelihood of a 25 basis-point rate hike, and a 16.6% probability that the central bank will leave its policy rate unchanged ...And while fed futures trading implies an over 50% probability that rates will stay at 5.25%-5.50% at the end of the year, there's still a 31.9% chance that the FOMC will increase again by 25 bps ...29 Jul 2022 ... ... rate hike of 75 basis points, with a probability of 83%.4. [UPDATE ... 4 CME FedWatch tool: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates ...Nov 30, 2023 · 30-Day Fed Funds futures and options are one of the most widely used tools for hedging short-term interest rate risk. Fed Fund futures are a direct reflection of collective marketplace insight regarding the future course of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. 1. 2. CME: Might the rally continue A price action above 179.00 supports a bullish trend direction. It is also close to the 200-day simple moving average. Further bullish …The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point on May 3, meeting widespread predictions and bringing the federal funds rate to its highest level since the summer of 2007. This ...Introduction to CME FedWatch. View FedWatch Tool. 18 Apr 2017. By CME Group. Gain a better understanding of our most popular tool, the CME FedWatch tool, which uses 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices to gauge the probability of an upcoming rate hike. Video not supported! Traders are just about evenly split on whether the Fed will hike its rate for a 12th time before the end of the year, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate hikes based on fed ...Nov 10, 2022 · Data pulled from the CME FedWatch Tool around 11 a.m. EST showed an 80.6% probability that the central bank would increase the target range of the federal funds rate to 425 and 450 basis points at ... Before the CPI release, markets had been pricing in about a 20% chance of a rate hike at the June 13-14 FOMC meeting. Following the meeting, that probability fell to just 8.5%.The CME FedWatch tool showed a 57.3% probability of a rate increase of 25 basis points at the February 1, 2023, policy decision compared with a 35.1% probability a day earlier. A rate hike of 25 ... 1 Mar 2017 ... FedWatch tool helps gauge the market's reaction to changes to the Fed Fund target rate. Read a monthly report on market trends ,new tools for ...The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge just heated up — and that could mean another rate hike By ... markets had the probability of a Fed pause at 54.2%, according to CME FedWatch. A little more ...CME interest rates futures were little changed following Wednesday's inflation report and continued to imply traders mostly expect a 25 basis point rate hike in May, no rate hike in June and a ...The graph below was created using data downloaded from CME’s FedWatch tool on its website and includes the % probability of the target Fed Fund rate being 450-475 (which is what it currently is), 475-500 (a hike of 25 basis points) and 500-525 (a hike of 50 basis points) after tomorrow’s meeting conclusion. Other large investors on Wall Street said that while they do not see a 75-basis-point move as imminent, the probability of such a large rate hike in the next few months are rising.NEW YORK, Feb 9 (Reuters) - CME Group Inc (CME.O) on Wednesday reported a fourth-quarter profit that topped Wall Street expectations, helped by increased …Updated on December 1, 2023. The Market Probability Tracker estimates probability distributions implied by the prices of options from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that …Mar 21, 2023 · Traders are now pricing in a 25-bp hike, with a probability of 86.4%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The odds of no rate hike stand at 13.6%, down from a 30.6% probability a week ago, but up ... The Fed looks to get to a “neutral” rate, which is roughly 2.4%. At that level, the Fed believes it won’t boost growth or hinder the economy but could help rebalance it. The question ...The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge just heated up — and that could mean another rate hike By ... markets had the probability of a Fed pause at 54.2%, according to CME FedWatch. A little more ...No 'Guarantee' But Yellen May Have Just Have Set a Trap for the Bears...SPY With a nearly 85% probability of a rate hike on Wednesday, no one paying attention to the Fed Funds market was surprised by the Federal Open Market Committe...Markets are currently placing the probability of a quarter percentage point rate hike in June only at about 30% according to CME FedWatch. That’s up from around 0% in mid-May. Prior to Jefferson ...Jul 7, 2023 · U.S. interest rate futures saw an increased probability of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in November, according to CME's FedWatch. The Fed did not hike rates in June but is widely ... There's a 61.6% probability the Fed will raise its benchmark rate by 50 basis points on March 22, according to the CME FedWatch tool tracking fed funds futures pricing. That's up from 31.4% a day ...First thing first, CME has a tool to calculate fed rate hike probability from here. As of 11/20/2017, their probability distribution was like this: I have checked a …At the CME, its own FedWatch tool showed a slightly higher probability of a hike than Refinitiv's: roughly 57% for the November meeting and 55% in December. A week ago, the rate increase chances ...Oct 30, 2023 · Market sentiment is leaning heavily toward the belief the current interest rate of 5.25%-5.5% will remain untouched. CME Group’s FedWatch tool is showing a staggering 98% probability of rates ... The CME Group makes projections of Fed rate hikes/cuts probability on a daily basis. The chart shows projections of the interest rate target range at the end of 2023 projected at different times, which reflect the market's interest rate expectations.14 Jun 2022 ... The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders see a 94% chance of a 75 basis-point hike to be announced Wednesday.Summary. Since the beginning of October, the CME FedWatch Tool has indicated an increased probability of a second rate hike by the end of 2022. As recently as October, Eurodollar volume ...24 Aug 2016 ... In fact, two popular tools, the CME's FedWatch Tool and Bloomberg's World ... For example, we can calculate the implied probabilities of a rate ...Mar 14, 2023 · Moreover, the CME FedWatch showed a 73.5% probability that the Fed would hike the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in the March FOMC meeting while the probability of a 25 basis-points ... Summary. Since the beginning of October, the CME FedWatch Tool has indicated an increased probability of a second rate hike by the end of 2022. As recently as October, Eurodollar volume ...Nov 14, 2021 · Summary. Since the beginning of October, the CME FedWatch Tool has indicated an increased probability of a second rate hike by the end of 2022. As recently as October, Eurodollar volume ... Traders are starting to bet that the rates market is underestimating the chances of an interest-rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting, which concludes Nov. 1.. Thursday’s CME ...Nov 20, 2017 · First thing first, CME has a tool to calculate fed rate hike probability from here. As of 11/20/2017, their probability distribution was like this: I have checked a couple Q&A sections on this site and I think I understand their logic, for example this one. I also read CME's documentation. But still i was not able to back out the probability of ... . Nyse ibm compare